A twitter essay:
1. Thoughts on the #Ukraine/#Russia crisis by a non-expert. What I think I have learned from ppl who know this issue. 1/14
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
2. Russia wants a near abroad, a sphere of influence. NATO and EU enlargement have greatly diminished the size of #Russia's sphere.
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
3. The #EU and #Russia have a big economic relationship. EU, eg Germany, not acting as upset right now as US
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
4. With EU more moderate, is a confrontational, you-will-pay US approach really that scary? Likely to work?
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
5. US “utterly lacks strategic empathy. Seem genuinely shocked when act of pulling countries into our bloc scares those who are our rivals”
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
6. #Ukraine is not in NATO. If #Russia went after a #NATO member, eg Estonia or #Poland, US response would be very different. War
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
7. Annexing Crimea is not an automatic win for Russia. Makes rest of Ukraine more anti-Russia, both demographics & politically
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
8. Taking more than Crimea could lead to bloody insurgency. Does Putin want that? #Russia
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
9. There are only a limited number of countries to Russia’s west where this approach would work. Not EU, not #NATO.
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
10. This is not only about Russian aggression. EU policy – encouraging pro-EU Ukrainians (oust Yanukovych) – was risky strategy (cont)
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
11. that was, it looks like, out of line with EU’s willingness to back it up if #Russia pushed back. (see 3 & 4 above)
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
12. Given its location, can #Ukraine flourish with ties to east and west rather than as one or other?
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
13. Maybe if Ukrainian politicians had built a strong state w/working institutions, less corruption, they’d be in better position vs Russia
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
14. Take my list with grain(s) of salt. Finis.
— Jeremy Pressman (@djpressman) March 7, 2014
